Thursday, November 1, 2012

Who is responsible for the deficit?

One of the much debated questions is who is really responsible for the ballooning deficit.  Here are some charts that should help explain how we went from Clinton era surpluses to the current deficits.  


  • Let's start with the basics - revenues and outlays.  Here are the trends:



OK, so what you notice is that in the 1990s revenues outpaced expenses.  In the Bush era, expenses increased at a much higher clip and the revenues basically flat lined.

So, what caused this?


  • Here is the White House's view of the issue:





  • Here's a view from E21:




Some of these have been discussed at length in Ezra Klein's excellent post.

In summary, there are a number of views but the consensus seems to be that Bush era spending increases and tax cuts account for a lot of the deficit.

  • But what about the chart that Obama's irresponsible spending? Well here's real Federal spending under different Presidents (source):


So, when you exclude the fiscal stimulus, which after all is only a temporary spending measure, Obama and Clinton have been among the least spendthrift Presidents in recent memory.


There is a longer term deficit issue.  However, the current deficit has more to do with exogenous factors and Bush era policies than anything Obama did.

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