The 2012 election was a huge win for mathematics as well as for Obama. Nate Silver and all the other poll aggregators had been panned before the election by commentators such as Michael Gerson. On Tuesday, the math based aggregators were vindicated. TPM PollTracker, HuffPost Pollster, the RealClearPolitics Average, and the Princeton Election Consortium all called the election correctly. However, my favorite one, Nate Silver was king! Nate Silver picked the winner in all 50 states (better than his 49 out of 50 in 2008). He had predicted Obama's total vote total would be 50.4% and Romney's would be 48.3%. The actual numbers were 50.8% for Obama, just four-tenths of a percentage point higher, and 48% for Romney's 48, just three-tenths of a point lower for an average miss of just 0.35 percentage points.
What helped Obama win? One of the best graphics on this was posted at the NY Times:
What helped Obama win? One of the best graphics on this was posted at the NY Times:
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